Wednesday
E. Michigan +11 over Ohio. 4 units.
ML +315. 2 units
Ohio is a fraction of who they were a year ago and return only 4 starters on offense and 5 on defense.
Last year they were a Plus 8 scoring team. This year +6.
E. Mich returns only 10 total - but they get their starting QB back.
Last year they were a -7 scoring team. This year a plus 3. They improved by 10 points per game.
Akron +14 over NIU. 2 units,
Last 4 games Akron has found some offense. They lost 3 of 4 games by less than 11 points.
Miami -1H -17.5 over Kent State. 3 units
Betting against a 48 point Kent defense on te road - along with the worst scoring offense in the MAC.
Miami's last four conference games they scored 35 pts per game,
Allowed only 15.
I suspect that a 2nd half coast is in the cards...
E. Michigan +11 over Ohio. 4 units.
ML +315. 2 units
Ohio is a fraction of who they were a year ago and return only 4 starters on offense and 5 on defense.
Last year they were a Plus 8 scoring team. This year +6.
E. Mich returns only 10 total - but they get their starting QB back.
Last year they were a -7 scoring team. This year a plus 3. They improved by 10 points per game.
Akron +14 over NIU. 2 units,
Last 4 games Akron has found some offense. They lost 3 of 4 games by less than 11 points.
Miami -1H -17.5 over Kent State. 3 units
Betting against a 48 point Kent defense on te road - along with the worst scoring offense in the MAC.
Miami's last four conference games they scored 35 pts per game,
Allowed only 15.
I suspect that a 2nd half coast is in the cards...
G Man do you have a read on the Houston game getting 1 1/2 looks too good to be real
Good observation, SmartMoney.
The public see's this as an even game because of the low scoring by Arizona in its last 5 losses.
In fact - since game one after scoring 61 points, they have never scored over 26 on the season.
If you look - they have never had a game with the spread over 7.5 which is rare.(This is important because they faced 3 top ranked teams)
Houston has come alive in its last 4 games going 3-1 SU, but in common opponents with Utah - Houston won 17-14 while Arizona beat Utah 23-1. Houston had Utah in Houston, whileArizona played Utah at Utah.
Kansas State was another common opponent with Houston winning last week 24-19 on 2 KSU turnovers. Arizona lost to KSU 31-7
This will be turnover game. Both teams are low scoring, but in the last 4 games Houston is averaging 21.
The small edge goes to Arizona here - only because of the Houston win over KSU - that win wasn't a "true-score" win as KSU out gained Houston by 103 yards.
One fact remains, This is the lowest scoring team that Arizona faced all season so the win should go to Arizona here because they faced the tougher opponents on average this year with Colorado-ranked #18, BYU #7 and KSU#20.
Houston faced only 20th ranked KSU but was out-gained as I said.
It should be low scoring.
My Play.
Arizona ML -125. 5 units
GL.
Arizona ML -125 ^^^ over Houston. 5 units
UCLA +4 (-120) over Washington/ 5 units
Washinton got past USC 2 weeks ago on Four (4) turnovers by USC. Otherwise they have crumbled the last 4 hames, allowing 34 pounst per game on the losses/
UCLA has beat solid teams, Nebraska, Iowa a Rutgers, - all with winning records.
Wyoming +10 (-130) over Colorado State. 3 units
First game where CSU has been favored by 10 points. '
CSU o a roll winning 6 straight ATS.
Laying a lot of points for a team that scores only 24 points per game.
UCLA +4 (-120) over Washington/ 5 units
Washinton got past USC 2 weeks ago on Four (4) turnovers by USC. Otherwise they have crumbled the last 4 hames, allowing 34 pounst per game on the losses/
UCLA has beat solid teams, Nebraska, Iowa a Rutgers, - all with winning records.
Wyoming +10 (-130) over Colorado State. 3 units
First game where CSU has been favored by 10 points. '
CSU o a roll winning 6 straight ATS.
Laying a lot of points for a team that scores only 24 points per game.
Thank you for the analysis, it was not the direction I was hoping for, but a highly respected one. I’ll have to pass on this game, I hope you well in your endeavor this evening.
Who you betting on tonight? Paul or Tyson?
I’m betting Tyson, I’m hoping 40 million guaranteed is Paul’s number to take the fall.
My concern is a cut on Tyson because his face skin is real loose because of his age. They may stop it on that - knowing how easy cuts are in boxing.
Under 5.5 rounds looks attractive - even if they are only 2 minutes long.
One thing for sure - Tyson doesn't fool around, he will fight every round like its for the win.
Saturday
NOON
Arkansas +13.5 over Texas. 3 units
Texas in road games struggled with Vanderbilt, even though Vandy had 3 turnovers. It was also the lowest score (27) on the road for Texas all year.
Arkansas defense was allowing only 21 pts/gm until they got buried by OleMiss last week. Texas isnt Old Miss.
NOON
Utah +14 over Colorado. 4 units.
Utah got burned last week with the SU loss, but covered ats.
Thanks to "@LSU Pete" for reminding me about the holding call against Utah last week that robbed them of a win. We'll get it back today Pete!
Tulane-7 over Navy. 3 units
By far the best defense that Navy faced this year since Notre Dame. They were pounded by ND andNavy had 6 turnovers in the loss.
Tulane ranked #18 defensively and in defensive yards allowed they are in the top 33 against the pass and 18th against the run.
NOON
Clemson-13 over Pitt/ 4 units
Common opponent was Virginia. Virginia was the road team in both games.
Spread was -20.5/Clemson.
Pitt -7.0.
Masses are 64% on Pitt.
Clemson defense allowed 14 points or less in the last three road games.
NOON
Ohio State-28 over Northwestern. 2 units
2:30
Michigan State +3 over Indiana. 4 units.
3:30
Notre Dame -21 (-120) over Virginia. 5 units
Staying on Dame as they are winning every week with defense.
They have held every opponent to 16 points or less on the season except Louisville which scored 24.
Last 4 games they've averaged 45 points per game on offense..
They also have one of the lowest turnover ratios in the nation.
3:30PM
Penn State -29 over Purdue. 4 units
3:30.
SMU -18. over BC. 3 units
4PM
Old Dominion +3 over James Madison. 3 units
Revenge game.
4PM
USC -7 over Syracuse. 3 units
USC is startring a new QB todays that should result in more scoring. They benched Miller.
4:15.
Missouri +13 over South Carolina. 4 units
Better defense here for Missouri allowing under 20 points oper game and getting points. Its usually a winner with teams allowing20 or less as dogs.
6PM
Rutgers +4.5 over Maryland. 3 units
Revenge game. Rutgers returns 16 starters w/QB.
7:30
Tennessee +9 over Georgia. 10 units (Best game today)
Vols haven't allowed over 20 points un ANY game this year. They re the best defense in the country regardless of ranking.
They shut down Alabama and rolled up 414 yards. .
Georgia has had 11 turnovers in their last 4 games. If they do that today they will lose SU.
Tennesse has the better defense.
Wisconsin +14 over Oregon. 3 units
Another good defense allowing 20 points or less getting points. Especially good as a home dog.
This is the same line (-14) that Oregon gave Michigan @ Michigan. I think Wisky is better can Michigan this year.
8PM
Wake Forest +10 over N.Carolina. 3 units
Wake battled a solid Cal team last week and lost on 4 turnovers, 46-36.
May be back later.
NOON
Arkansas +13.5 over Texas. 3 units
Texas in road games struggled with Vanderbilt, even though Vandy had 3 turnovers. It was also the lowest score (27) on the road for Texas all year.
Arkansas defense was allowing only 21 pts/gm until they got buried by OleMiss last week. Texas isnt Old Miss.
NOON
Utah +14 over Colorado. 4 units.
Utah got burned last week with the SU loss, but covered ats.
Thanks to "@LSU Pete" for reminding me about the holding call against Utah last week that robbed them of a win. We'll get it back today Pete!
Tulane-7 over Navy. 3 units
By far the best defense that Navy faced this year since Notre Dame. They were pounded by ND andNavy had 6 turnovers in the loss.
Tulane ranked #18 defensively and in defensive yards allowed they are in the top 33 against the pass and 18th against the run.
NOON
Clemson-13 over Pitt/ 4 units
Common opponent was Virginia. Virginia was the road team in both games.
Spread was -20.5/Clemson.
Pitt -7.0.
Masses are 64% on Pitt.
Clemson defense allowed 14 points or less in the last three road games.
NOON
Ohio State-28 over Northwestern. 2 units
2:30
Michigan State +3 over Indiana. 4 units.
3:30
Notre Dame -21 (-120) over Virginia. 5 units
Staying on Dame as they are winning every week with defense.
They have held every opponent to 16 points or less on the season except Louisville which scored 24.
Last 4 games they've averaged 45 points per game on offense..
They also have one of the lowest turnover ratios in the nation.
3:30PM
Penn State -29 over Purdue. 4 units
3:30.
SMU -18. over BC. 3 units
4PM
Old Dominion +3 over James Madison. 3 units
Revenge game.
4PM
USC -7 over Syracuse. 3 units
USC is startring a new QB todays that should result in more scoring. They benched Miller.
4:15.
Missouri +13 over South Carolina. 4 units
Better defense here for Missouri allowing under 20 points oper game and getting points. Its usually a winner with teams allowing20 or less as dogs.
6PM
Rutgers +4.5 over Maryland. 3 units
Revenge game. Rutgers returns 16 starters w/QB.
7:30
Tennessee +9 over Georgia. 10 units (Best game today)
Vols haven't allowed over 20 points un ANY game this year. They re the best defense in the country regardless of ranking.
They shut down Alabama and rolled up 414 yards. .
Georgia has had 11 turnovers in their last 4 games. If they do that today they will lose SU.
Tennesse has the better defense.
Wisconsin +14 over Oregon. 3 units
Another good defense allowing 20 points or less getting points. Especially good as a home dog.
This is the same line (-14) that Oregon gave Michigan @ Michigan. I think Wisky is better can Michigan this year.
8PM
Wake Forest +10 over N.Carolina. 3 units
Wake battled a solid Cal team last week and lost on 4 turnovers, 46-36.
May be back later.
Thanks for pointing it out.
Thanks Indy.
2:30
Michigan State +3 over Illinois. 4 units.
4PM
USC -7 over Nebraska.. 3 units
